Thunderstorms (Local-scale Severe Weather): Not all severe weather affects large areas. Issued: 2:27pm Saturday 17 Feb 2018. Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2008-2020.Page created at December 18, 2020 05:30am +1300 NZDT. MetService provides land-based severe weather alerts through a system of Outlooks, Watches and Warnings. Days before potentially severe events begin, the forecasting team will flag these events that look potentially severe in the Severe Weather Outlook, which acts as a heads-up to potentially severe weather occurring in the next five days, so people can start planning. Predictability of local-scale events is comparatively low and, in many cases, meteorologists can only predict where and when conditions will be favourable for the development of local-scale severe weather, but only issue warnings when severe thunderstorms have been detected. The message is be prepared, particularly for events of low probability but high potential impact, and for events which may be of some significance but do not meet the criteria for issuing a Warning. Typically, Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are for the next hour. The Outlook is a ‘heads up’ that although we can see something coming, there is some uncertainty about what might happen and where. A Watch will be issued when we know bad weather is coming and it will be significant but not serious enough to reach ‘warning’ criteria, or when there is uncertainty about what might happen. Severe weather is unlikely given the weak instability. The Severe Weather Outlook issued at 2:34pm on Wednesday 11th March. As New Zealand’s Alerting Authority for severe weather, MetService is strongly focused on issuing forecasts and warnings that are as accurate and timely as possible. As well as being available on www.metservice.com, MetService Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are available by email. Severe Thunderstorm Criteria. For any particular event, the type of message depends on the time and geographic scale of the event and its predictability. Typically, MetService will issue advice six days out from potential severe weather through our ‘Severe Weather Outlook’. Weather Outlook, Valid from Monday 19 February 2018 to Thursday 22 . MetService Severe weather: November 24th - 25th. Note: The MetService Facebook page is used for education about weather as well as to provide some forecasts, and should not be relied on as your sole source of weather information. MetService National weather: December 8th - 10th. In locations more than about two kilometres from the thunderstorm, severe weather didn't occur. Although these weather conditions might not meet the criteria for a Watch or Warning, the Severe Weather Team may send out a Special Weather Advisory or Road Snowfall Warning to highlight these conditions. Communicating public safety messages based on severe weather event probabilities can be quite challenging, and forecasters have to strike a balance between the need to alert people to the potential for severe weather, and the risk of “crying wolf” by over-emphasising severe weather that might not happen. Above is an example of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. • Severe weather information • 2-hourly wind, temperature and rainfall forecasts for the next 48 hours • 7.5 minute Rain Radar • 3 day and 5 day rainfall forecast imagery • The latest MetService TV Rural Outlook video • Daily past weather for the last seven days • User selected default location which is saved as the preference Different approaches are required for broad-scale severe weather events which affect large areas (thousands of square kilometres) and last up to several days, versus local-scale events which typically affect a few square kilometres and last from a few minutes to several hours. Severe weather is unlikely given the weak instability. Uncertainty is part and parcel of weather forecasting, requiring meteorologists to make risk-based decisions based on limited, and at times conflicting, information. Second Radar Image: 14th December 2009 severe thunderstorms over the Canterbury area, one of these caused a tornado in Methven. Broad-scale events are caused by weather systems that can usually be identified some days in advance (e.g. National News; A ridge of high pressure will bring settled weather to much of the country on Monday and Tuesday. The MetService severe forecasting team are in the office every day of the year keeping a critical eye on the upcoming conditions. It signifies that people need to act now as immediate action is required to protect people, animals and property from the impact of the weather. Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen. Press Release – MetService. MetService: Severe Weather outlook – Feb 17 Severe Weather Outlook. Warnings are typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather. Weather on your mobile; Weather on your tablet; Weather on email; MetPhone; Important Notice - Windows Apps; MetService Apps Security Update; About this Site. MetService’s Severe Weather team keeps a critical eye on the upcoming conditions. When an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected. Issued: 2:27pm Saturday 17 Feb 2018. View all severe weather information Planned Maintenance Due to scheduled maintenance, some information on metservice.com (including satellite and radar data, cameras, and observations) will not be updated between 11pm Mon, 14 Dec and 4am Tues, 15 Dec. 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